FOMC Minutes - 2023-05-23

They're data-dependent -- which means the inflation emergency is provisionally over, and the usual cost-benefit relationships are important again. We take that as meaning: no more rate hikes. The baseline assumption is for a recession starting right now -- and then (you guessed it) inflation exactly at target by 2025. By the way, the word "deflation" doesn't make it into our Page One word-cloud. That's because the word doesn't appear even once in the 4,584 total words in the minutes. Oh. And the US banking system is sound and resilient.