ECB and Euro Area Economy Monitor - 2024-06-05

You think the Fed is bad? The ECB just cut rates for the first time this cycle, "based on an updated assessment" which -- wait for it -- revises upward, yes, upward, staff projections of inflation for this year and next. No recession fears or anything else cited as an explanation. We'll see how LaGarde dances around this in the press conference. By the way, there's no particular record of the ECB being a leading indicator of what the Fed will do -- but if you are looking for Fed rate cuts, hard to see how this hurts.