Global Real Rates and Yields - 2026-05-17

For all last week's panic about global sovereign yields, it's remarkable how little any of it shows up in the charts when you look at them in the longer-term context (our charts start in 2000). To be sure, there's a spike in inflation. A little spike. Short-term rates are more than looking through that -- on a global average basis, they are the lowest since 2023. Long-term yields, too, at the lowest since 2024. Tell whatever stories you like about spirals and positive feedback loops here. They may even be true stories. But for now they are just stories. So far nothing of consequence is showing up in the data.