Federal Reserve - 2026-03-17

Looks like the FOMC is going to avoid a stupid error here. The "dot plots" for the funds rate are unchanged versus the prior estimate -- one rate cut still in 2026, one more in 2027, and that's all folks. We were terrified they'd take away the cuts in the false fear that an oil-driven supply-shock would be inflationary (it is, in fact contractionary). Now let's wait and see if Powell undermines all that in the post-meeting presser.