US Unconventional CPI - 2026-03-11

The alternative measures all agree -- we're in a trading range for inflation very near the Fed's target. Remember, it's not 2.5% for CPI. The 2% target is for PCE. But here's what makes it so hard to figure now -- PCE is running above CPI, which almost never happens. Yes, the index with the lower target is running above the one with the higher target! There are basically two differences between the indices -- CPI overweights housing and underweights health care, and it just so happens housing inflation is (finally) abating, but health care inflation is not. But the fact that the analysis comes down to such picayune factors tell us that inflation should not now be a front-and-center issue for the Fed