High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-11-19

Supporting the sunnier view of this morning's delayed jobs report, we now have unemployment claims data for the first time in many weeks... and it looks just great. Okay, that lobbies against a Fed rate cut. On the other hand, our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator is in outright deflation so far in November. Unfortunately, the BLS hasn't even announced when the next official CPI number will be revealed -- we can be pretty sure there won't be new data in time for the FOMC.