FOMC Minutes - 2025-11-18

The minutes confirm the Fed-watcher chatter, that the committee was deeply divided on every issue, except the decision to halt balance-sheet run-off, because of incipient stress in money markets. Critically, "several" among the "many" who wanted an October rate cut thought a December cut might not be "appropriate." "Several" thought a December cut would be. Now, with no October jobs report and November not coming until after the Fed meetings in mid-December, tomorrow's delayed September report will be the only labor data -- and it will be pretty stale. So a rate cut is going to be a coin-flip. As of this writing, markets have downgraded the probability of a December cut  to 30%. It was 100% just a month ago, and then Chair Jerome Powell sternly warned markets to reconsider. 30% feels about right to us.