High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-07-30

Beats in both new and continuing claims, both at very low levels. S&P 500 365 days-forward earnings aggressively moving to new highs now -- and yesterday's big beats by MSFT and META aren't even in the data yet. For all our criticisms of Powell's faulty vision on inflation, we agree with him -- and this data confirms -- that there's no urgent need for a rate cut. On that point, if we were to still fault him, we'd ask why he keeps insisting that policy is restrictive? He can't have it both ways...