Retail Sales and Supply Chain Stress Monitor - 2025-06-16
Date:
Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Summary:
A weak retail sales number sets up the June FOMC, beginning today, to take the risks of economic weakening seriously. With inflation quiescent for the last three months, payroll growth slowing to reflect deportations and a tight border, and now this -- how could the FOMC not reaffirm its "dot plot" for two rate cuts in the back half of 2025? By obsessing about tariffs, that's how.