High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-06-11

New jobless claims are unchanged from last week's slightly elevated level. Continuing claims rise ever so slightly, and both miss expectations. That puts the claims-implied unemployment rate at 1.46%, a level not seen since late 2021. This incipient weakness in the labor market is contradicted by a gratifying rise in S&P 500 forward earnings. They're within a penny or two of all-time highs now -- and Mag 7 forward earnings have been making new highs already for a couple weeks.