FOMC Minutes - 2025-01-07

Here's the confession: they're pre-positioning for Trump tariffs and immigration restrictions: "All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated. ...A number of participants indicated that they incorporated placeholder assumptions to one degree or another into their projections." Meanwhile, "A substantial majority of participants observed that, at the current juncture" policy is "still meaningfully restrictive." So let's keep it that way, just in case Trump does something, and just in case that might have some effect that we can't even imagine.