FOMC Minutes - 2024-08-20

It couldn't be plainer, except that Powell wasn't dovish enough in the July FOMC presser. The "vast majority" of participants think it will be appropriate to cut in September. "Several" said they could have supported a cut right then and there in July. Why? Here's the money quote: "A majority of participants remarked that the risks to the employment goal had increased, and many participants noted that the risks to the inflation goal had decreased. Some participants noted the risk that a further gradual easing in labor market conditions could transition to a more serious deterioration." The only question is whether it's one cut or two in September. The August jobs report will have a lot to do with that, and we'll get further telemetry from Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday.