High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-07-02

New claims miss, remaining at a low level but slightly elevated from where they've been the last couple months (and the claims-implied unemployment rate actually falls by 1 bp). But the big high-frequency news continues to be in inflation. Our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI shows June closing out with outright deflation for the month at 1.07% (at an annual rate). So far in July it pencils out to 2.34% deflation.