High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-06-26

Date: 
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Summary: 

New claims beat for the first time in three weeks, and the little bump of two weeks ago is revised away. But the important thing is our trusty Truflation realtime CPI model -- with three days to go in June, which will be the second anniversary of the peak in US inflation, it looks like the month will show outright deflation. Nice set-up for the CPI release in two weeks.