High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2022-12-21

Claims rise slightly, but beat expectations. So the implied unemployment rate rises by 1 bp. The Fed's tightening regime is "working"! In other news, Q3 real GDP was revised upward again t0 3.2% at an annual rate (the more the Fed tightens, the faster the economy grows). That puts us 4.4% above pre-pandemic output, with no more people working to produce it. Inflationary recession? No. It's our productivity-led boom.