Covid-2019 - 2020-08-04

New case growth in what has been called the second wave has definitively rolled over, but fatalities occur with a lag. So while days-to-double fatalities is our most reliable growth-rate indicator, it is the last to turn. Arizona, Florida and Texas have turned now (California was never as much a problem). By that metric, Australia and Israel are the worst, with no turnaround in sight -- both of them were top performers in March and April, now the most at risk.