US PCE Inflation - 2025-07-30

Yesterday at the FOMC Chair Jerome Powell acted like he was being generous by "looking through" rising inflation in core goods and not raising rates right now. Inflation there is accelerating, to be sure -- up 4.76% in June at an annual rate. But it's only up 0.97% year-over-year. And Powell's once-indispensable "super-core" -- core services ex-shelter -- grew at a near-target 2.26% annual rate in June. That used to be Powell's drop-dead argument-ending sufficient statistic. Now he never mentions it, because it doesn't confirm his biases. We're not trying to beat up on Powell -- we just don't think he's seeing the whole field right now.