US PCE Inflation - 2025-06-26

Year-over-year measures ticked up because of base effects. But for the month, headline PCE, headline market-based, and Powell's "supercore" all came in below target -- again. Core and core market-based were mere basis points above target. All this is happening against the backdrop of the Treasury having already collected, year-to-date, as much tariff revenue as it took all last year. We and Chris Waller are looking pretty right.