US PCE Inflation - 2025-03-27

The PCE indices are all very well-behaved on a year-on-year basis. But except for the dominant shelter component, virtually everything else accelerated in February, giving a much harsher near-term outlook on inflation than CPI did two weeks ago. This is a reversal from January, where CPI was the bad cop and PCE was the good cop. Yet another factor clouding the Fed's outlook.