US Jobs - 2026-03-05

This big drop in payrolls is flatly contradicted by almost every other contemporaneous labor market indicator. We strongly expect upward revisions. Be that as it may, this puts the Fed in a bind, doesn't it? They imagine high oil prices cause inflation (no, too much money does). They imagine unemployment reduces inflation (no, too little money does). So now they are a deer caught between two different sets of headlights. They will use this to make a virtue of inaction, just as does a deer freezing up.