US Jobs - 2025-11-19

Headline payrolls beat the consensus, but negative revisions to the prior two months, flipping August to a small net contraction. With June, that's the second one. The unemployment rate ticked up, but only because the labor force grew. By the way, immigrant employment fell and native-born employment rose. It's a dangerous and delicate balance as new immigration policy acts as both a supply shock and a demand shock for the labor market and the economy. All in all, this slightly increases the chances of a December FOMC rate cut -- but it's probably not enough to get it over the finish line at this point, and this is the last jobs report the Fed will see before the meeting.