US Jobs - 2025-09-04

A weak payrolls number, but it's not confirmed by much else in the data universe. Nevertheless, September Fed cut locked in! The big news is the downward revision to June payrolls, now showing -13,000 (was +14,000). This is the first negative payroll print since the recovery from the pandemic. Through the recession-scare years of 2022 and 2023, we held fast that growth would continue, and it did. We said the business cycle doesn't end until you see a negative payroll print. We were right. But now we have our negative print. Does that mean the expansion is over? We'll have more on that in our report coming out later this morning.