US GDP - 2026-02-19

Very disappointing Q4 GDP number -- way below consensus, model estimates and our expectations. But it seems most of the miss is due to a contraction in government production (assuming, of course, you accept that the government produces anything in the first place). The BEA explains this as a complicated consequence of the lengthy government shutdown. All else equal, we would expect this to rebound from Q4's low base in Q1. Some of the miss is attributable to a slowdown in exports -- how are those tariffs working for ya?