US CPI/PPI - 2026-04-09

Red-hot headline CPI for March, but no surprise at all. It's all motor fuels, and exactly at expectations. But that masks very good news underneath. Food inflation was near zero. Health care was in outright deflation. Yes, it costs more to fill up your tank to get the grocery store and the hospital, but once you arrive, good news awaits. Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations implied by TIPS spreads have fallen well below the 5-year moving average. Markets seem quite sure that any issues here are, dare we say it, transitory.