US CPI/PPI - 2024-12-10

OER continues to decelerate -- with exactly the long lag that we and the Fed have expected. The problem is that the super-core aggregates that exclude shelter aren't getting any benefit from that. It's a small effect, and it won't deter the Fed from cutting next week, but our prediction that CPI would stabilize here and start gently accelerating, as growth in the money supply is restored, is coming ominously true.