US CPI/PPI - 2024-08-13

Headline and core exactly at consensus, and both below the Fed's target at an annual rate. We were expecting a second-in-a-row deflationary month, but didn't get it overall -- but we did get it in the goods and health care sectors. All but a few basis points of July's inflation are explained by just the five hottest categories, of course led by owner's equivalent rent. This will be the perfect data point to keep the Fed on schedule for a first starter-kit rate cut of 25 bp at the September FOMC.