High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2025-03-12

Date: 
Thursday, March 13, 2025
Summary: 

Nice beats in new and continuing claims -- no recession evidence here. In our new DOGE Tracker on page 3, Washington DC continues to lead the nation in jobless claims growth since Trump's inauguration, followed by federal employees nationwide. Virgina is in fourth place, behind Vermont (does Bernie Sanders have a secret plan to reduce the size of government?). Maryland shows only a modest increase in claims, in fifteenth place. And our office utilization index has moved to post-pandemic highs -- is DOGE driving remote workers back to their offices? 

Separately, the Producer Price Index was reported as unchanged for February  (final demand actually deflated), confounding expectations for pre-tariff pre-emptive buying (we've updated yesterday's "Data Insights: CPI/PPI" to reflect it). Hmmmm... seems that none of the standard narratives are without their complications.