High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-08-21

New claims low and at-consensus. Existing low and beats. Despite payroll data getting downgraded based on the same state-level data from which claims are derived, claims continue to look fabulous and consistent with an ongoing expansion. Best news for the Fed: our "Truflation" real-time CPI-tracker has come down from high levels at the beginning of August to now a mere 0.70% at an annual rate, month to date.