High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-08-06

The great news is that the consensus for new jobless claims was calling for a drop from last week's big number -- and then we beat it!  Our "still no recession" call is looking good. The not so great news that that "Truflation" is now showing August month-to-date CPI  The not so great news that that "Truflation" is now showing August month-to-date CPI growing at a 10% annual rate, reversing two months of deflation (including July, to be officially reported next week -- look for a nice beat). But the relieving news for August is it's all one category -- housing -- and we still have the better part of a month to see if that calms down.