High-Freq Data Monitor - 2026-05-13

Jobless claims rise slightly and miss the consensus for the first time in many weeks. They had hit rock bottom, and having bounced off it, remain at levels that have to be seen as extremely low by any standards, and about average for the last four years of generally low numbers. On the other hand, we do note the move in the internals of the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index. The composite index is wonderfully low, and has been falling the last three weeks. But the leverage component has been rising sharply for the last couple months, and is now well above the zero line -- indicating vulnerability, even if not outright stress.