High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2026-03-11

New jobless claims low, and better than expectations. See? This is what we mean when we say to take the reported February payroll contraction with a grain or two of salt. Separately, as earnings season winds down, we now have a 6.4% weighted-average surprise factor for the S&P 500. That's a very strong number, but we do note that it is the fourth quarter of sequential decline. It's still a great number, and the decline is small, but it's worth considering that the consensus is getting better at discounting the earnings generated in this historic productivity supercycle.