High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2026-02-04

Bump up in new jobless claims, and a miss versus a more optimistic consensus (which is rare nowadays). Continuing claims rose slightly, beating consensus. Nothing out of pattern with the last several months. We now have all the January data from our "Truflation" real-time CPI model, and it's calling it a month of slight deflation (we'll see soon whether the BLS agrees, at least we will if the government can stay open).