High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-09-10
Date:
Thursday, September 11, 2025
Summary:
New claims miss, and come in at the worst since January 2001. Continuing claims beat. We can explain the shortfall in payroll growth by the self-deportation of immigrants, but not new claims. When they leave the country, they leave their jobs and can't make claims. Hardly a definitive recession signal, but definitely pointing in the wrong direction. It has our attention.