High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-06-04

New claims miss for the second week in a row, but still no worse than we saw as recently as last October. But last week's were revised lower, and continuing claims beat. This is mixed news on top of this week's poor services PMI and ADP payroll numbers. Other high-frequency data is mixed, too. Forward earnings have been moving higher the last couple weeks and same-store sales growth is fine, but gasoline consumption (even at these lower prices) is gently falling, and rail-freight loadings are contracting.