High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-05-14

Claims are low -- new claims slightly miss, but existing claims beat, so the claims-implied unemployment rate falls. The only worrisome high-frequency data is still the stall-out in S&P 500 forward earnings growth. In other news, PPI final demand is in outright deflation for the second month in a row -- and this is just where tariffs were supposed to be showing up first and foremost! We've updated Tuesday's CPI/PPI report to show it.