High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-04-30

Big miss in new claims -- but still a low level, an no different than we had just two months ago. But continuing claims missed too, so the claims-implied unemployment rate rose by 11 bp. You can't blame DOGE -- its net effects on unemployment are minimal. With the gentle rollover in 365 days-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings, we continue to have cause to be on recession alert. But it remains too early to pull any triggers.