FOMC Minutes - 2024-02-20

Sigh. All the evidence from statistics and contacts cited in the minutes is that inflation has been slain. But all the decision-weight is on the vague fear that all of a sudden it will surge higher. What markets want to know is what evidence, and how much of it, the Fed will need to be confident enough to cut rates -- but there's literally not a word about that here. But we can cling to this: "A few participants mentioned the possibility that economic activity could surprise to the upside and inflation to the downside..." And it's official that at the very next meeting they'll start the discussion about when to end balance-sheet run-off.