Covid-2019 - 2023-01-19

Today we're integrating the Chinese CDC's new monthly data protocol. We'll be backwardly revising the past month of cases and fatalities, assigning each day the average of the reported month. So there will be significant discontinuities at the monthly breakpoints (e.g. page 14 and page 8), and that will flow into global totals that include China (e.g. page 1). The data, as presented, is a mess -- and was never reliable to begin with. But if you take it at face value, daily new cases in China are now 36,286 and fatalities 1,713. Yes, that means the recent case/fatality rate is an astonishing 4.72%. And it means Covid is spreading supra-exponentially in China, according to our trusty days-to-double-mortalities measure (page 9). Because the new monthly data applies only at a national level, we are discontinuing the province-level (formerly on page 3).