Covid-2019 - 2021-11-25

We've been wondering out loud when the next variant scare would come, and here it is: 1.1.529, or "nu" to its friends. Except for one known case in Belgium, far it's a S. African thing, where cases and fatalities (and the case-fatality ratio) have been rising. But that pattern is not unique, occurring in other places in the world where there is no evidence of nu at all. Quick-take: we're not worried about 2020-type lockdowns again, but the world runs on the confidence of individuals and firms acting in their own interests, so even a mere scare can be a blow to growth.