We were right to rely on the oil futures curve to see through the fog of war. Will the Fed?
Donald L. Luskin
Open Letter to Kevin Warsh: The ECB Shows You What Not to Do
Thursday, June 11, 2026
As Goethe said, “There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action.”
On the May Jobs Report: A Pressure Cooker for Warsh
Friday, June 5, 2026
A great report, and a great leadership challenge for our new Fed chair.
On the April Jobs Report, and the Boom Year of Living Joblessly
Friday, May 8, 2026
A recession requires a payroll contraction. But it takes no jobs growth to make a boom.
On the April FOMC
Wednesday, April 29, 2026
Three dissenters see nonexistent easing bias in the statement. They’re signaling something.
Warsh's Confirmation Hearing, and His Way Forward
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Kafka would be right at home at this hearing. The next steps are clear, but very uncertain.
A "Fed-Treasury Accord" Could Work
Monday, April 20, 2026
Warsh and Bessent should be comfortable with such a banking maneuver from their days on Wall Street.
On March Jobs Report
Friday, April 3, 2026
Another alternating oscillation in payroll growth and contraction. The Fed will look through it.
On the March FOMC
Wednesday, March 18, 2026
This could have been way worse. But it was still a missed chance to cut rates.
Another Quick Note on Developments in Iran
Monday, March 9, 2026
The last oil shock that caused a recession was in the First Gulf War. This isn’t even close.