It’s tricky. They will feel inflationary, and CPI will confirm it. But the Fed’s PCE won’t.
Donald L. Luskin
On March Jobs, a Powell Put, and a Recession Call
Friday, April 4, 2025
There’s no hard evidence of it, but it’s tough not to call for a recession from the tariff shock.
Are We Feeling Liberated Yet?
Wednesday, April 2, 2025
Maybe we should be – liberated from uncertainty about Trump’s tariff terror, at least.
Deregulate, Sanction and Tariff, Baby, Deregulate, Sanction and Tariff!
Wednesday, March 26, 2025
Trump unleashes fossil fuel production at home, and crushes it in Iran and Venezuela.
On the March FOMC: Dots in the Headlights
Wednesday, March 19, 2025
The Powell Put is in place – and with the end of QT, it’s already being deployed.
Uncertainty Has Become a Cliché
Monday, March 17, 2025
After a 10.5% correction in stocks, it’s hard to profit further from an in-consensus idea.
On the February Jobs Report and the DOGE Effect
Friday, March 7, 2025
We’re starting to see a DOGE effect. The test is whether these people can find other work.
Tariffs are Taxes. This is a Tax Hike.
Tuesday, March 4, 2025
There’s already incipient weakness this quarter, and inflation risk. This is not good.
The Other Trump Effect: Uncertainty
Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Less than a week after all-time highs for stocks, uncertainty is starting to take a toll.
Tariff the World. Save the World.
Friday, February 14, 2025
Trump’s “big one” is a game-theoretic optimum in the prisoner’s dilemma of trade.