A not-insane analysis of polling: Trump wins the popular vote, Harris wins the election.
Donald L. Luskin
On the October Jobs Report: Blockbuster in Disguise?
Friday, November 1, 2024
Storm-related unemployment was massive. And the Sahm Rule reversed itself -- again.
Oh Come All Ye Faithless
Friday, October 25, 2024
Just when you thought there were no more black swans in this presidential election...
Has the Economy Become Inflation-Prone?
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
It’s a question, not a forecast. But for what it’s worth, our model is saying it has.
On the September Jobs Report
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Bad news: now only 50 bp of rate cuts by year-end. The really good news: no recession.
Four Fun Facts about the Uninverted Yield Curve
Friday, September 27, 2024
So do we finally have our recession signal? In four words: no, no, no and no.
On the September FOMC
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
It’s an aggressive move, but not as aggressive as it seems – and surely not a panic.
Two Faddish Indicators and Their Fatal Flaws
Monday, September 9, 2024
The Sahm Rule and Lichtman’s Keys to the White House aren’t all they’re cracked up to be.
On the August Jobs Report
Friday, September 6, 2024
A big beat versus the recessionary whisper number. This locks in only a 25 bp rate cut.
The Game Changes for Russian Crude
Monday, August 26, 2024
Price-caps flopped. The Urals discount is gone. Russian infrastructure is now under attack.