Three big hits. One big miss. Three prescient conversations. One scandalous idea.
Donald L. Luskin
On the December FOMC
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Powell loses control of his committee. Luckily, the new policy path is accidentally optimal.
The Trump Effect
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
The dog barked in the night. Small business optimism soars following Trump’s election.
On the November Jobs Report
Friday, December 6, 2024
Workers displaced by storms all came back. Why wasn’t this report stronger?
Trump’s TrendMacro Cabinet
Monday, November 25, 2024
Controversial, yes. But these are people of ideas who have engaged with you, our clients.
Oil Under Trump: War and Peace, but Mostly Deregulation
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Deregulation removes deadweight costs, promoting both lower prices and higher profits.
On the November FOMC: What, Me Political?
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Not everything is about Trump. The news here is Powell admitting the neutral rate is higher.
Our Hot Take on the Election
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Market reactions in the aftermath all point to faster growth.
Our Fearless Forecast
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
A not-insane analysis of polling: Trump wins the popular vote, Harris wins the election.
On the October Jobs Report: Blockbuster in Disguise?
Friday, November 1, 2024
Storm-related unemployment was massive. And the Sahm Rule reversed itself -- again.