This could have been way worse. But it was still a missed chance to cut rates.
Donald L. Luskin
Another Quick Note on Developments in Iran
Monday, March 9, 2026
The last oil shock that caused a recession was in the First Gulf War. This isn’t even close.
On the February Jobs Report
Friday, March 6, 2026
We hate it when bad news is good news. But this might keep the Fed from a terrible error.
Quick Note on Developments in Iran
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
This won’t last long. The biggest risk is a Fed error mistaking an oil shock for inflation.
Our Hot Take on The SCOTUS Tariff Decision
Friday, February 20, 2026
It’s a complicated tapestry of concurrences and dissents – but the tariffs are dead.
On the January Jobs Report
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
A 65,000 beat in January payrolls is more important than a 1 million benchmark contraction.
The Warsh-Bessent Fed-Treasury Accord
Monday, February 9, 2026
How to radically shrink the Fed’s balance sheet without quantitative tightening. It’s easy.
Our Hot Take: It’s Warsh
Friday, January 30, 2026
He’s the best. So why would Trump pick him? And why would he agree to do it?
On the January FOMC, and Trump in Check
Wednesday, January 28, 2026
A boring FOMC meeting, as expected. All the drama is in the Trump/Powell chess match.
If These Risks Were Real, We’d Be Worried. Happily, They Are Not.
Monday, January 26, 2026
The best strategy for investing in 2026 may be to avert your eyes. Let us do the watching.