October’s payroll contraction is a big one – but it doesn’t mean we’re in recession.
Donald L. Luskin
2026 Oil Outlook
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Sentiment is about as washed out as it gets. Wall Street sees a crash, we see a bottom.
On the December FOMC
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
The rate cut regime is on pause. But is quantitative easing starting up again?
On the Delayed September Jobs Report
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Nice headline number, but underneath is a tricky combo supply shock and demand shock.
Did We Just See Peak Tariffs?
Monday, November 17, 2025
With “affordability” all the rage, Trump may welcome SCOTUS killing his tariffs for him.
Build It and They Will Come (If You Can Power It)
Friday, November 14, 2025
Natural gas will lead the way among diverse solutions. It may already be priced in.
How to Make Tariffs Inflationary -- and How Not To
Tuesday, November 11, 2025
“Dividends” would be as inflationary as Covid stimulus. Refunds would restart disinflation.
On the SCOTUS Tariff Oral Arguments
Wednesday, November 5, 2025
The three liberals are in the bag to strike down the tariffs. Kavanaugh and Alito are at risk.
Hot Take on the Trump/Xi Trade Meeting
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Trump “wins” – still the highest tariffs in a century, but no rare earths shock.
On the October FOMC: Powell to Miran -- "Take a Step Back"
Wednesday, October 29, 2025
Powell dresses down the doves, but markets remain confident they will win.