The 2018-2019 tariffs began with steel and aluminum, and prices ended up lower.
Donald L. Luskin
On the January Jobs Report (and Tariffs)
Friday, February 7, 2025
Revisions, benchmarkings, adjustments (and weather). This miss is a strong jobs report.
They Called His Bluff on Tariffs
Sunday, February 2, 2025
They still may not happen. But if they do, it’s a $256 billion tax hike someone will pay.
On the January FOMC, and The Briefest Word on DeepSeek
Wednesday, January 29, 2025
The FOMC took out the “progress on inflation” language. Powell built it back in.
How Much Do Tariffs Matter?
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
Their economic effect is minimal, but reordering the world-trade system would be dangerous.
What is Trump’s Mandate? On Day One, It’s Not Tariffs
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
In a firehose of Day One policy moves, Trump is handling tariffs with appropriate caution.
On Bessent and Tariffs
Friday, January 17, 2025
Extending TCJA is job one. Tariffs appear to be only a revenue-raiser.
On the December Jobs Report, and How the Fed is Trumping Itself
Friday, January 10, 2025
The Fed doesn’t care about jobs now. Instead it is diving down a Trump tariff rabbit-hole.
Predictions for 2025: Tariffs
Friday, January 3, 2025
Based on 2018-2019, there will be tariffs and they won’t matter. Does the Fed understand?
Predictions for 2025: Macro and Markets
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Another good year in the post-pandemic productivity-led boom. Valuation is the only issue.