Based on 2018-2019, there will be tariffs and they won’t matter. Does the Fed understand?
Donald L. Luskin
Predictions for 2025: Macro and Markets
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Another good year in the post-pandemic productivity-led boom. Valuation is the only issue.
Our Predictions in This Most Unpredictable Year
Friday, December 27, 2024
Three big hits. One big miss. Three prescient conversations. One scandalous idea.
On the December FOMC
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Powell loses control of his committee. Luckily, the new policy path is accidentally optimal.
The Trump Effect
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
The dog barked in the night. Small business optimism soars following Trump’s election.
On the November Jobs Report
Friday, December 6, 2024
Workers displaced by storms all came back. Why wasn’t this report stronger?
Trump’s TrendMacro Cabinet
Monday, November 25, 2024
Controversial, yes. But these are people of ideas who have engaged with you, our clients.
Oil Under Trump: War and Peace, but Mostly Deregulation
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Deregulation removes deadweight costs, promoting both lower prices and higher profits.
On the November FOMC: What, Me Political?
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Not everything is about Trump. The news here is Powell admitting the neutral rate is higher.
Our Hot Take on the Election
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Market reactions in the aftermath all point to faster growth.