The Sahm Rule and Lichtman’s Keys to the White House aren’t all they’re cracked up to be.
Donald L. Luskin
On the August Jobs Report
Friday, September 6, 2024
A big beat versus the recessionary whisper number. This locks in only a 25 bp rate cut.
The Game Changes for Russian Crude
Monday, August 26, 2024
Price-caps flopped. The Urals discount is gone. Russian infrastructure is now under attack.
On Powell at Jackson Hole
Friday, August 23, 2024
Rate cut expectations were deep before he even started talking. Then they got deeper.
It’s a Recession! Well, Maybe It’s Just a Correction
Monday, August 5, 2024
With the 2-10 disinversion and the Sahm Rule, we’ve got kinda sorta (not) recession calls.
On the July Jobs Report
Friday, August 2, 2024
Recession dread is back, just when everyone had capitulated on the Magnificent Seven.
On the July FOMC
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Powell puts a September cut “on the table” at least three times.
FOMC Preview: A Political Decision?
Monday, July 29, 2024
With the first rate cut coming, the Fed might fear it’s a battleground state this election.
Trumponomics II, The Sequel
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
November is a long way out, but let’s start to answer client questions about a second term.
Our Hot Take on Biden’s Stephanopoulos Interview
Saturday, July 6, 2024
If he can’t run for president how can he continue to be president? Markets will want to know.