Bad news: now only 50 bp of rate cuts by year-end. The really good news: no recession.
Donald L. Luskin
Four Fun Facts about the Uninverted Yield Curve
Friday, September 27, 2024
So do we finally have our recession signal? In four words: no, no, no and no.
On the September FOMC
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
It’s an aggressive move, but not as aggressive as it seems – and surely not a panic.
Two Faddish Indicators and Their Fatal Flaws
Monday, September 9, 2024
The Sahm Rule and Lichtman’s Keys to the White House aren’t all they’re cracked up to be.
On the August Jobs Report
Friday, September 6, 2024
A big beat versus the recessionary whisper number. This locks in only a 25 bp rate cut.
The Game Changes for Russian Crude
Monday, August 26, 2024
Price-caps flopped. The Urals discount is gone. Russian infrastructure is now under attack.
On Powell at Jackson Hole
Friday, August 23, 2024
Rate cut expectations were deep before he even started talking. Then they got deeper.
It’s a Recession! Well, Maybe It’s Just a Correction
Monday, August 5, 2024
With the 2-10 disinversion and the Sahm Rule, we’ve got kinda sorta (not) recession calls.
On the July Jobs Report
Friday, August 2, 2024
Recession dread is back, just when everyone had capitulated on the Magnificent Seven.
On the July FOMC
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Powell puts a September cut “on the table” at least three times.