A shocker, with the December 2024 dot taking out two rate cuts. Happily it’s not that simple.
Donald L. Luskin
On the May Jobs Report
Friday, June 7, 2024
Another big beat thanks to immigration – but a mixed bag that won’t move the Fed.
Open Borders Produced the Biden Economic Boom
Friday, May 24, 2024
Why doesn’t he get credit for strong growth? In part because he can’t defend his immigration policies.
On April CPI: Oh, What a Relief It Is
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
If it weren’t for just four items, April CPI would have been downright deflation.
On the April Jobs Report
Friday, May 3, 2024
The labor force expands, and wage growth cools. Good report, and Fed-friendly.
On the May FOMC
Wednesday, May 1, 2024
Markets were braced for the worst. The sharp deceleration in QT was a bullish surprise.
Our Hot Take on Iran’s Attack on Israel
Sunday, April 14, 2024
The allies who saved Israel quote Don Corleone: “I want no acts of vengeance.”
On March Jobs, and No Go for No Labels
Friday, April 5, 2024
Jobs go boom. Sadly, No Labels goes bust. But there is still Bobby (Junior, that is).
One Year On, Bank Credit Finally Shakes Off Silicon Valley Bank
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
It's growing at a near-trillion dollar rate. Recessionistas have lost their last argument.
On the March FOMC
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
It’s official: the neutral rate is higher now. And the end of QT comes “fairly soon.”