In a firehose of Day One policy moves, Trump is handling tariffs with appropriate caution.
Donald L. Luskin
On Bessent and Tariffs
Friday, January 17, 2025
Extending TCJA is job one. Tariffs appear to be only a revenue-raiser.
On the December Jobs Report, and How the Fed is Trumping Itself
Friday, January 10, 2025
The Fed doesn’t care about jobs now. Instead it is diving down a Trump tariff rabbit-hole.
Predictions for 2025: Tariffs
Friday, January 3, 2025
Based on 2018-2019, there will be tariffs and they won’t matter. Does the Fed understand?
Predictions for 2025: Macro and Markets
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Another good year in the post-pandemic productivity-led boom. Valuation is the only issue.
Our Predictions in This Most Unpredictable Year
Friday, December 27, 2024
Three big hits. One big miss. Three prescient conversations. One scandalous idea.
On the December FOMC
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Powell loses control of his committee. Luckily, the new policy path is accidentally optimal.
The Trump Effect
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
The dog barked in the night. Small business optimism soars following Trump’s election.
On the November Jobs Report
Friday, December 6, 2024
Workers displaced by storms all came back. Why wasn’t this report stronger?
Trump’s TrendMacro Cabinet
Monday, November 25, 2024
Controversial, yes. But these are people of ideas who have engaged with you, our clients.