It’s two labor markets in one. But for our two Feds in one, now it’s all about disinflation.
Donald L. Luskin
2024: Deflation, Election, and No Recession
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
It’s going to be a strange year. A difficult year. A tricky year. But it will end well.
2023: Our Greatest Hits, Our Gravest Misses
Friday, December 29, 2023
No recession, inflation done, the Fed done, stocks at new highs. But bonds… China…
It’s Two! Two Feds in One! Friday, December 15, 2023
Friday, December 15, 2023
New York Fed’s Williams: who are you going to believe, me or your lying Fed chair?
On the December FOMC
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
The dots are down, the Fed is done, the cuts are coming in March.
On November CPI: Good, Not Great
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Not the outright deflation we expected to set the stage for tomorrow’s FOMC.
For What It’s Worth... TrendMacro’s 2024 Presidential Election Model
Monday, December 11, 2023
The model says the economy says Biden will win. But just as likely Mitt Romney will!
On the November Jobs Report
Friday, December 8, 2023
The recession consensus is disappointed again. But the curve still expects rate cuts soon.
As Inflation Collapses, the Fed Clings to The Big Lie
Thursday, November 30, 2023
They keep saying growth causes inflation (the opposite is true). But they aren’t acting on it.
On Walmart’s Deflation Call Thursday
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Deflation is coming. The consensus thinks that’s bad. Walmart is telling you it's good.