The PBOC rules out devaluation, fearing capital flight. China is too fragile to play this game.
Donald L. Luskin
Did China Just Run Up the White Flag in the Trade War?
Tuesday, July 10, 2018
On the June Jobs Report
Friday, July 6, 2018
Wow. We just found 601,000 workers that we were supposed to be running out of.
OPEC Eases (Or So It Claims)
Monday, June 25, 2018
Saudi can’t back up promises for 1 million new barrels/day. Crude markets will tighten.
Is Trump Really Bluffing on Tariffs?
Friday, June 22, 2018
Yes. But it’s good that you are beginning to doubt it. Let’s hope China doubts it too.
On the June FOMC
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
No forward guidance anymore. But no marijuana either. Powell is slowly learning to do this.
Will the Powell Fed Rewrite the Playbook?
Monday, June 11, 2018
It's time to admit policy isn't easy anymore -- but that's not to say the "old normal" is back.
Will the ECB Kill Italy?
Friday, June 8, 2018
The FOMC will hike (but that will be an easing). The ECB will still do whatever it takes.
On the May Jobs Report: What Labor Shortage?
Friday, June 1, 2018
Even at 3.8% unemployment, the labor market is looking more "mid-cycle" than "end-of-life."
Saudi and Russia Change Their Tune
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Bowing to Trump’s tweet, or stabbing Iran in the back? Little change for global oil markets.
USD, Euro and the Risk of Italeave
Friday, May 25, 2018
Brexit was easy, because the UK never used the euro. Now we face a systemic threat.