Demand will surprise on the upside, while supplies are kept artificially tight
Donald L. Luskin
On the December Jobs Report, and Services PMI
Friday, January 6, 2023
If you believe that bad news is good news, this was a good morning. Or was it?
Surprises of 2023 Volume 1: From Inflation to Deflation
Tuesday, January 3, 2023
Few expect inflation at-target by summer. No one expects outright deflation.
Recession? No Thanks, We’ve Already Had One
Friday, December 30, 2022
Our reflections on a complex and difficult 2022. We had our wins, we had our misses.
On the December FOMC
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Markets aren’t buying the new higher dots. Despite appearances, the Fed got the memo.
On November CPI – Inflation Definitively Peaks
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Will Powell accept the good news? It doesn’t matter. He’s already pledged to slow down.
On the November Jobs Report
Friday, December 2, 2022
No sign of recession here. With the Fed promising to slow down, good news is good news.
On Powell at Brookings
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
The chair made two small but important (and dovish) concessions to reality.
“Zero Covid” Protests? Zero Importance.
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Mostly a media confection, the protests shouldn’t suppress stocks or oil prices.
How Trump’s Red Wave Got Aborted
Monday, November 14, 2022
The quantitative proof is in. Trump and the SCOTUS Roe decision decided the mid-terms.